Virginia GOP Primary Poll
Differentiators Data conducted a statewide survey of likely GOP Primary voters February 21-24. Full topline results, crosstabs, and more on our firm and methodology below.
Three Big Takeaways:
- Virginia GOP Primary Voters love Governor Youngkin but don’t back him for President.
- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has an early lead among likely Virginian GOP Primary voters.
- Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears leads Attorney General Jason Miyares in a hypothetical 2025 GOP Primary match up.
Among GOP Primary voters, Governor Glenn Youngkin is the Commonwealth’s most popular politician:
- 87% of voters view Governor Youngkin favorably and he has a net 78% favorability rating.
- The only other politician close to Governor Youngkin’s popularity with Virginia Republican Primary voters is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Governor DeSantis is viewed favorably by 81% of GOP primary voters and holds a 71% net favorability rating.
- There is large group of politicians with net favorability ratings between 48% and 32%, including Lt. Governor Winsome Sears, former President Donald Trump, Senator Tim Scott, Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo.
- Likely GOP primary voters are much more divided over former Vice President Mike Pence, who holds only a net 13% favorability rating.
- Virginia Republicans don’t envy the Republican leadership of their neighbors in Maryland. Former Maryland Governor and potential GOP presidential candidate Larry Hogan has a negative net favorability rating with likely GOP primary voters.
Ron DeSantis holds an early lead in Virginia’s Republican Presidential Primary:
- Governor Youngkin might be the most popular politician with Virginia’s Republican primary voters, but with only 6% of the vote he is not their top choice for President.
- The Republican Presidential Primary is a two-horse race, with DeSantis narrowly leading Trump on the multi-candidate ballot.
- In a series of prospective head-to-head ballots, DeSantis beats Trump by 17 points and Youngkin by 38 points. Youngkin trails Trump by 10 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
- DeSantis leads Trump in most parts of Virginia in the multi-candidates race and in all parts of the state in a head-to-head race:
- Importantly, DeSantis grows his support with every demographic group in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, while Trump’s support is largely unchanged. These results indicate Trump has a firm base of support in the GOP Primary but is unlikely to grow his vote share as the GOP Presidential field narrows. DeSantis, on the other hand, stands to benefit greatly as the field shrinks.
Lt. Governor Winsome Sears dominates a hypothetical Gubernatorial matchup with Attorney General Jason Miyares:
- While Republican Primary voters view both Lt. Governor Sears and AG Jason Miyares favorably, Sears leads a potential primary by 31 points.
About Differentiators Data:
- Differentiators Data is a Raleigh, North Carolina-based firm that serves a broad range of corporate, nonprofit and political clients.
Methodological Statement:
- Sample: n=500 likely GOP primary voters
- Field dates: February 21-24, 2023
- Margin of error: +/- 4.5%
- Mode: 1/3 live landline, 1/3 live cell phones, and 1/3 text-to-web.