NC-13 Polling Memo

by | May 7, 2024 | Uncategorized

To: Interested Parties

From: Differentiators Data

Re: NC 13 Second Primary Polling and Analysis


The second primary in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District has had more twists and turns than an Eastern North Carolina creek. Before Donald Trump endorsed Brad Knott, both campaigns released polling data claiming leads. Following President Trump’s endorsement, the Knott campaign released a survey showing Knott leading Kelly Daughtry 62% to 23%. Daughtry subsequently announced she was suspending her campaign and endorsed Knott. Through Tuesday May 7, only 4,376 people had voted in the runoff. To assess the race, Differentiators Data conducted a multi-modal survey of 400 probable second Republican Primary voters on May 4-6, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%, on behalf of the American Foundations Committee.

Three Things to Know

  1. Only 51% of survey respondents know Daughtry has suspended her campaign and endorsed Knott.
  2. Knott leads Daughtry by 57% (74% to 17%). 84% of respondents know Trump endorsed Knott and Knott leads Daughtry 81% to 15% with these voters.
  3. Survey respondents love President Trump, who is viewed favorably by 77% of voters and unfavorably by only 20%. Trump’s endorsement has lifted Knott’s image rating with voters to 70% favorable to 20% unfavorable. Daughtry’s image with voters is 19% favorable and 59% unfavorable.

Visualizing the Poll

This chart outlines the candidate’s performance with key groups of voters: 


President Trump’s endorsement in this race ended any chance Kelly Daughtry had to win and she’s clearly recognized that fact by suspending her campaign and endorsing Knott.  However, only half the voters know she has suspended her campaign.  At this point, the only concern for the Knott campaign and its supporters is voter turnout, which through May 7th is incredibly low. If turnout picks up, Knott will win handily, and he may win handily even if it doesn’t.